President Joe Biden won the Michigan Democratic primary on Tuesday, but lost votes from some who are angry over his support of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas as he heads toward a re-election rematch against former President Donald Trump in November. Biden received 58% of the vote, while 42% of the voters chose “uncommitted”, a sign of dissatisfaction with his foreign policy stance. Some activists had urged Michigan Democrats to cast a protest vote for “uncommitted” to send a message to Biden that he should pressure Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories and respect human rights.
Biden, who announced his campaign for re-election on April 25, 2023, has faced criticism from some progressives and Muslim Americans for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, which killed more than 250 people, mostly Palestinians, in May 2023. Biden defended his support for Israel’s right to self-defense, but also called for a ceasefire and pledged to help rebuild Gaza. Biden has also faced challenges from the coronavirus pandemic, the economic recovery, the immigration crisis, and the threat of domestic terrorism.
Despite his low approval ratings, hovering just above 40%, Biden is still the most likely candidate to defeat Trump in the 2024 presidential election, according to political experts. Biden won Michigan by a narrow margin of 2.8% in 2020, and the state is expected to be a key battleground again in 2024.
Trump wins Republican primary, but faces competition from Haley
Former President Donald Trump easily won Michigan’s GOP primary on Tuesday, according to a projection from Decision Desk HQ, extending his early-state dominance over rival Nikki Haley. Trump received 76% of the vote, while Haley, the former South Carolina governor and ex-US ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, received 24%. Trump has won all the early voting states, including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and has amassed a commanding lead in the delegate count.
Trump’s campaign to retake the White House and once again grab his party’s nomination got off to a slow start that was widely mocked, but after decisive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, his campaign has steadily moved into a position of dominance. Trump declined to attend any of the Republican debates, has used his court appearances and many legal woes as a rallying cry to mobilize his base, and has run a surprisingly well-organized campaign. His extremist rhetoric, especially around his plans for a second term and the targeting of his political enemies, has sparked widespread fears over the threat to American democracy that his candidacy represents. His political style during the campaign has not shifted from his previous runs in 2016 and 2020 and, if anything, has become more extreme. Many see this as a result of his political and legal fates becoming entwined, with a return to the Oval Office being seen as Trump’s best chance of nixing his legal problems.
Haley, who has mostly hewed a fine line between being an alternative to Trump, while not outraging his base with too much direct criticism, has failed to gain traction among Republican voters, who remain loyal to Trump. Haley has shone in debates and rose past her competitors for the number two slot in the Republican race, but after losing by sizable margins in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Haley’s chances have dwindled. Haley has focused on her foreign policy experience, her record as a governor, and her appeal to women and minorities, but has struggled to overcome Trump’s popularity and influence in the party.
What’s next?
The Michigan primary was the last major contest before Super Tuesday, when 14 states and one territory will hold their primaries or caucuses on March 6, 2024. Super Tuesday will award more than a third of the total delegates for both parties, and could determine the fate of the presidential race. Biden and Trump are expected to maintain their leads and secure their nominations, but Haley and the “uncommitted” voters could still pose a challenge to their respective frontrunners. The general election will take place on November 5, 2024, and will likely be a close and contentious race between Biden and Trump, who have starkly different visions for the future of America.
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