As of Saturday night, November 23, 2024, Democrat Derek Tran has expanded his lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th Congressional District to 545 votes. Tran has secured 157,427 votes, while Steel has 156,882, with approximately 1% of the estimated vote total remaining to be counted.
This race is among the final three undecided House contests, alongside Iowa’s 1st Congressional District and California’s 13th District in the San Joaquin Valley, both featuring narrow margins favoring Republican incumbents.
Initially, Steel led by over 5 percentage points the day after the election. However, as more ballots were processed, Tran’s lead has steadily increased. This shift has led to unfounded claims of voter fraud by some individuals.
Experts emphasize that such changes during the counting process are typical. Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. notes that Democrats had a 5.1% advantage in ballots cast before Election Day, Republicans had a 15% advantage with in-person votes on November 5, and Democrats held an 18.5% advantage with late-arriving ballots, explaining Tran’s growing lead.
California does not have an automatic recount threshold. State election law permits any voter to request a recount for any contest, provided they cover the associated costs.
For most races, this request must be made within five days after the election is officially certified, which is by December 5. For statewide or cross-county elections, the request can be made within five days after December 6.
Additionally, the governor can order a state-funded recount for any statewide office or ballot measure if the difference is less than 1,000 votes.